Elaine's little primer to COP26

So, unless you're under a very specific climate change-denying rock, you probably knew that there was some major world leaders' meeting going on right now that had something to do with the environment.

Me too!

But besides that and the general idea that it wasn't going great, I've got to admit I was very fuzzy on any other detail. Like if you asked me to describe anything beyond that, I'd shrug and go:

"Presidents and whatever are debating stuff somewhere in Europe, and young folks are protesting it because nothing they agree on is actually going to help."

Which, I mean, I don't think I'm wrong.

But considering that I've devoted this whole new site to the idea of finding ways to exist ethically, and seeing how understanding the systems that make us sustainable (or not) is a big part of that, I felt like I was doing this conference - COP26 - a disservice by not knowing enough about it.

So consider this my attempt to rectify that, and in the simplest way I can, try to break down what's happening there for you too, dear reader.

What is COP?

COP stands for “Conference of Parties” and it happens annually.

The UN began holding these climate change conferences in 1995, and this is the 26^th one, hence COP26.

The dates this time around are: OCTOBER 31 (Sunday) to NOVEMBER 12 (Friday). Apparently week one was for schmoozing and gladhanding amongst the 25,000 delegates from around 200 countries. Week two, which we're nearing the end of, is when everyone sits down for the hard negotiations.

The location: Glasgow, Scotland. Take a sip of scotch in solidarity!

If it happens every year, why does this one matter?

So back in 2015, the Paris Agreement happened. Almost all the countries in the world actually agreed on a bunch of targets for everyone to meet in order to ensure that the planet didn't warm by 2 degrees C (ideally keeping it to 1.5C).

If we hit that level, we'd be facing quite the pickle of environmental disasters, including the death of somewhere around 70% of the world's coral.

In the Paris Agreement was a promise to meet up five years later and assess the situation. So at this year's COP, it was time to:

1) See how close we are to meeting the targets, which included commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions and get to net zero by somewhere between 2050 and 2100. Also: agreements for the richest countries to provide $100 billion annually ot poorer countries to meet climate targets.  

Spoiler Alert: Neither of those happened.

2) Figure out what five-year goals to set next, considering they couldn't meet any of those previous ones.

Well that's... not great. So what are they hoping for from this time?

The same damn thing! Look at this graphic (from the BBC) of what the targets are and tell me if it's not restating exactly what I said in the last question.

So basically, it's not like we're changing the goal posts. We're just tearing out our hair asking each other why nobody's on track to meet them.

It kind of reminds me of companies who project revenue targets, and then don't hit them at every check in, but then refuse to lower their annual target, and basically by Quarter 4 their revenue forecast chart has turned into a laughably steep hockey stick.

Anyway, one third of the way to 2050 and we're already at 1.1 degrees of warming. But in this case, we can't really lower (heighten?) that 1.5C target because the other side is environmental collapse. #doom.

Oof, so how's this week going then?

Ha. Ha. Ha.

So some people are choosing to be optimistic because some things have already been agreed on. For instance, they managed to get better funding to tackle deforestation and 350 organizations that control about $130 trillion dollars of wealth (40% of the world's private assets) have agreed to back "clean" technology.

But when it comes to who signs on to what, vested interests becoming obstructionist politicking is the name of the game.

For instance, a whole lot of countries have signed onto shiting away from coal and methane... the holdouts are only the countries that use or produce it the most!!!

Which means places like China and India, with massive populations that need to be supplied with energy and are already suffering black outs due to limiting coal supply, have been pretty quiet about okaying these targets. Also silent: the United States - I'm gonna blame Manchin because fuck him.

Virtually nobody is willing to be a martyr here though.

Saudi Arabia has asked that UN scientists walk back conclusions that energy systems need to shift rapidly to "zero-carbon sources" and actively phase out fossil fuels. Guess who's the world's biggest oil exporter?

Brazil and Argentina are quibbling over a section that says reducing meat consumption is necessary to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Guess who are some of the biggest producers of beef products and animal feed crops in the world?

Switzerland is trying to amend a whole bunch of parts regarding financial support that rich countries should be giving to poor countries. I mean... I just don't. even.

Those are just a few of the countries with "comments" on a crucial scientific report on how climate change is to be tackled. These adn many more from this BBC report:

But that’s to be expected. The G20 meeting, another giant global conference of world leaders, happened just a week ago and already you could see that countries were willing to all stonewall anything that they might have to change themselves while pointing fingers at each other for obstructing new climate change mitigating initiatives.

Meanwhile, I suppose it's also not surprising that the largest delegation at COP26 wasn't any individual country's, but rather.... the fossil fuel industry in general.

So we're screwed then?

Um. Well.

I'm trying to find an optimistic take on this, but the best I can do is that, at least 200-some countries recognize that climate change is a problem and are willing to come to the table.

This is especially important since the United States - the second-top emitter of CO2 - had walked back on most of its Paris Agreement promises when Trump was in power. Biden might not head towards Green promises as fast as people would like, but at least he's not running wantonly in the other direction. Things could be worse. Much worse. Remember that come election time.

Also, while China - the top emitter of CO2 - rarely ever commits to anything, they also tend to over-deliver whenever they do.

But for all of us nibbling our nails from the sidelines, is there anything we can actually action to try and stop the upcoming superstorms from swallowing us all?

Fuck if I know.

Well okay, there are three things I can think of - and they don't have anything to do with recycling or flying less:

• Try not to read everything above and become a nihilist. Find a community you want to work with and then work together to put pressure on governments & companies to walk as far back from the brink as they can. Obviously this is hard - I've had to quit some organizations in this past year because they were cesspools of incompetence, negativity, and egos to match. But I'm holding out hope that as long as I keep trying, I will find a group of energized, educated, positive, pragmatic people I would be thrilled to throw my hat into the ring with.
• Speaking of recycling or flying less: try not to become a climate change morality nag. It's fine to do those things, and I personally feel environmental habit experimentation helps us all understand our consumption more mindfully, but ultimately your friend refusing to commit to meatless Mondays is going to do nothing compared to McDonalds changing its chicken sourcing practices. Your bike route is a drop in the bucket compared to airlines purchasing more fuel-efficient jet liners. Meanwhile, if you're scolding everyone around you for not being more climate sensitive in their habits, you're just getting everyone to think you suck.
• And speaking of scolding everyone, even if you DO (like me, actually) want to continue experimenting with more environmentally-friendly habits, also don't be an ass to yourself. I'm not jet-setting around the world these days, but I recognize that it's been worth it for me to do, even if it's the biggest part of my carbon footprint. Again, I will never wrack up anything close to what, say, a corporation wastes by not finding a tiny efficiency in their supply chain. If you find yourself shaming yourself, stop. You've got better things to do with your time - like bullet point one.

(Post-Nov 12 addendum)?

This post is going out about two days before COP26 is actually set to end. But unless something massively surprising happens, I probably won’t have much extra to write up. So I’m going to leave this space blank for now and then fill in IF something surprising did happen.